Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 9.411931 11.080724 12.915961 15.078109 17.549509 20.279870 23.518064
2025-01-12 6.914286 9.069573 11.662218 14.986589 19.109365 24.025785 30.300755
2025-01-19 5.359277 7.705286 10.747303 14.927735 20.461868 27.468589 36.930934
2025-01-26 4.597433 7.139675 10.648084 15.749579 22.865319 32.309456 45.634685
2025-02-02 3.982798 6.629122 10.489339 16.387028 24.992707 36.882020 54.287093
2025-02-09 3.531578 6.259098 10.440657 17.115161 27.245504 41.734613 63.624353
2025-02-16 3.003472 5.665680 9.951798 17.090325 28.342208 44.973617 70.855788
2025-02-23 2.480212 4.981757 9.210606 16.554851 28.564662 46.887943 76.221893
2025-03-02 2.034976 4.350435 8.457180 15.885446 28.469504 48.256564 80.791567
2025-03-09 1.771851 4.005830 8.140784 15.892232 29.433520 51.286269 88.048561
2025-03-16 1.558005 3.717690 7.881680 15.956193 30.474198 54.476473 95.716978
2025-03-23 1.363395 3.432875 7.586985 15.913099 31.307055 57.355757 103.024718
2025-03-30 1.133192 3.033649 7.026300 15.330345 31.165733 58.654936 107.924058
2025-04-06 0.992318 2.808223 6.782457 15.324191 32.062098 61.773516 116.054332
2025-04-13 0.868956 2.599074 6.541621 15.291886 32.896846 64.825991 124.237153
2025-04-20 0.828023 2.587266 6.725010 16.140419 35.472670 71.116154 138.371368
2025-04-27 0.776047 2.536528 6.813336 16.794684 37.713443 76.923821 151.948644
2025-05-04 0.734062 2.504594 6.939649 17.539570 40.184210 83.285549 166.826899
2025-05-11 0.650959 2.339369 6.726971 17.514522 41.087298 86.771146 176.665885
2025-05-18 0.551694 2.103117 6.305033 16.967550 40.858169 88.085502 182.568045
2025-05-25 0.460644 1.868375 5.848852 16.283602 40.270253 88.652161 187.076469
2025-06-01 0.410899 1.754783 5.691849 16.290547 41.164528 92.156410 197.289571
2025-06-08 0.369079 1.657729 5.565049 16.355906 42.187846 95.966546 208.261826